Ye Tan: RMB'S Rise And Fall Will Continue.

The rise and fall of the renminbi indicates that the real exchange rate of the renminbi has risen. Judging from the quotation of the one year NDF (RMB non deliverable forward contract), the trend of RMB appreciation has not changed.

At the beginning of 2014, the global exchange rate and the stock market entered another short period of reversal. This shows that the global economic turmoil is far from over. The stability of the RMB is conducive to the global economic stability. If the RMB joins a large concussion, it will trigger another round of bloodshed.

The result of currency failure is that the financial market has intensified and the process of harvesting wool has become more bloody. The yen rebounded after hedge funds such as Soros gained short profits from the yen. In January 14th, the Nikkei index N225 plummeted 3.1% to a month low, closing at 15422.40 points, dropping to 15383.69 points in the intraday time, the lowest since December 18, 2013, and the single day decline was the largest in 5 months. The yen rose and the US dollar rose against the yen for three consecutive weeks, and the US dollar fell to 1:103 yen.

There are many reasons to see more dollars in the yen, and there are more reasons to see more yuan in 2014.

The US economy is improving. Peter, J (PeterJ.Walison), a senior research fellow at AmericanEnterpriseInstitute, wrote in the New York Times that the real estate bubble in the United States increased from 5.83% to 2% in the third quarter of 2011 to the 2% quarter of 2011. As for the data of non farm employment, when the United States employment has been really good since the financial crisis, people seem to be accustomed to the era of low employment.

At the same time, Japan is relaxed. monetary policy It seems that there is a certain effect. By November 2013, CPI rose slightly, and the price increase was the largest in 5 years, and the base salary ended 17 months later. As a big exporter, the trade deficit expanded. In January 14th, Japan's Ministry of Finance announced the data. In December 2013, Japan's trade account deficit expanded considerably. Specific data show that Japan's initial trade deficit in December 2013 was 1 trillion and 380 billion 169 million yen, 82.7% in the same period last year, and 755 billion 453 million yen in the same period in 2012. The depreciation of the yen has created ugly trade data, but it has made Japan take a breath of fresh air from the quagmire of deflation. A large sum of money has sent Japanese "Watanabe ladies" again with bullets to throw yen into the US dollar.

Not surprisingly, investors willing to hold dollars are still increasing. In January 10th, the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) released weekly holdings. As of January 7th, the dollar held a net bull position of speculators rose to $21 billion 110 million, the highest in September 10, 2013, the highest in the previous week, and $17 billion 500 million in the previous week. Yes, the yen rose against the US dollar for two weeks, rising for 3 consecutive days as of January 13th, but that is just a need for changing positions and rebounding. Because of the downward trend of Japan's economy, the yen lost its independent character and became a dodder on the US dollar. As long as the US allows, the yen will continue to depreciate.

The renminbi is different, though it is practical. inflation Rising, but the economic data is particularly good. Official data show that in 2013, China's total import and export volume of goods trade exceeded US $4 trillion, and China surpassed the United States for the first time in the world's first trade in goods. Now, China's title includes the world's second largest economies, the largest export trading power, the largest manufacturing power, the largest foreign exchange reserve and the second largest importer. Since the global economy is weak and China is thriving, it is impossible to shirk the responsibility of maintaining the strong position of the renminbi in helping the global economic recovery.

　　 RMB That's how it works. In January 13th, the central parity of RMB against the US dollar reported 6.0950 yuan, up 58 basis points from the previous trading day, and refreshed the historical high since 2005. In January 14th, the central parity of RMB against the US dollar edged up by 20 basis points to 6.0930. In fact, in 2013, the appreciation rate of RMB against the US dollar reached 3%, and the 41 time in the whole year hit a new high. The rapid increase of China's trade volume has the factor of converting into US dollars. The current statistical methods only look at the reasons why the total amount can not accurately count the added value, and the reasons for the false trade of arbitrage hot money.

In addition, in the process of RMB internationalization, it is necessary to maintain monetary credit and slow appreciation to become a probability event. However, the appreciation of the renminbi does not mean that China's economic transformation is successful. The long-term strength of the currency is a reflection of economic strength. Sometimes appreciation is the result of economic laws, and it is also the need for global investors to cut wool. There is a popular article that allows investors to indirectly short the renminbi by shorting the Australian dollar and bank shares. We can see that the international market has enough vigilance against China's real economy and asset bubbles.