What Is The Central Bank'S Intention To Raise MLF And Reverse Repo Rate?

Whether it is to maintain the stability of monetary policy or the "steady progress" of economic development, though it may be more regarded as being confident of being able to hold on to itself, it is also uncertain about such uncertainty.

No matter what is done lightly, it will inevitably backfire.

The central bank raised the MLF and the reverse repo rate for the first time after the Fed raised interest rates. Does this mean that monetary policy is tightening? The central bank's answer and market interpretation are obviously different.

The central bank official said that the winning bid interest rate upward is the result of market bidding.

The winning rate is not an increase in interest rates.

In other words, this means that the monetary policy orientation of "robust neutrality" has not changed.

However, the current monetary policy orientation is basically a "stable" word. After all, it has changed from "steady slightly relaxed" to "neutral and neutral". And in some sensitive economists' eyes, can it not only prove that the monetary policy is tight?

Indeed, the rich and complex meaning of Chinese words is not easy to read.

Moreover, since last year, a network word called "no derogatory basis" has appeared on the Internet.

This means that in the media while the renminbi does not have the basis of depreciation, the RMB exchange rate has been declining in the past period.

In this regard, President Zhou Xiaochuan explained this, he said, "normal exchange rate fluctuations are a normal situation, but also a normal situation."

Therefore, he quoted the hot words of the Internet as saying: "there is no derogatory basis for people," and the renminbi has no basis for sustained depreciation.

Admittedly, the fluctuation of the RMB exchange rate is not only related to the uncertainty brought about by Trump's election, but also has a great relationship with China's overinvestment in some aspects since the second half of last year.

If the former is mainly caused by the lack of confidence, the latter will inevitably be prone to more mistakes.

This not only fully shows that, with the increasing uncertainty, capital projects need to be strengthened in management. At the same time, it is pointed out that the best way to deal with the uncertainties caused by external factors is not to follow suit, but rather to remain unchanged.

"Robust neutral"

The key is to hold on to yourself.

This can be said to be a sign of confidence in oneself, and at the same time, it is possible to have a more adequate response to the unforeseen uncertainty both inside and outside the company, rather than being less prone to partial loosening than before.

Internally, the central bank's monetary policy adjustment has a more obvious "targeting therapy" meaning.

On the one hand, it is to control the recent real estate market which is warming up again; on the other hand, it is also to continue to maintain a moderate degree of deleveraging, so as to ensure that there will be no liquidity gap.

In view of the risk prevention and bubble suppression factors, domestic monetary policy, even in the short term or difficult, is not worth a fuss.

Externally speaking, it is necessary to divide the so-called "Trump shock wave" into two parts.

On the one hand, the uncertainty brought by Trump to the domestic and foreign policies of the United States, especially to China.

The potential change is likely to be more serious. Therefore, we must not be too careless when it is a paper tiger. On the other hand, of course, we can not but see that his policy proposition on some issues is not easy to get rid of all kinds of interests from all sides, including the constraints of the American legal system, and uncertainty may also become a fatal characteristic.

In a sense, there is no reason why this US interest rate hike is like a hawk like pigeon or a non Eagle non pigeon.

It is rather frivolous to consider the moderation of the Fed's rate hike as a good thing.

We have reason to believe that

With the deepening of "three changes, one reduction and one subsidy", the development of China's economy will be more stable and healthier, and there will be no great changes in the relevant policies, including monetary policy.

But whether it is the stability of monetary policy or the "steady progress" of economic development, even though it may be seen as more confidence in stabilizing itself, it is also uncertain about such uncertainties, especially from Trump.

In this respect, any slight will inevitably backfire.

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