The Price Of Fresh Milk Fell Slightly In September, And The Price Of International Dairy Products Is Expected To Rise

Recently, the Department of Market and Information Technology of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs officially released the Monthly Report on Analysis of Supply and Demand Situation of Agricultural Products (September 2024), which carried out detailed analysis and prediction on the relevant situation of the milk market. The monthly report pointed out that the purchase price of domestic fresh milk fell slightly in September, while the recovery rate of dairy consumption failed to meet expectations.

According to the monthly report data, the average purchase price of fresh milk nationwide in September was 3.14 yuan per kilogram, down 1.9% month on month and 16.0% year on year. This decline reflects the pressure and challenges faced by the fresh milk market of Xiansheng. Experts from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs believe that there are two main reasons for the price decline of fresh milk: first, the domestic fresh milk production capacity is undergoing a slow optimization process, but this process has not significantly affected the market price; Second, the recovery of dairy product consumption was less than expected, and the market demand was insufficient, leading to the oversupply of fresh milk, which further suppressed the price.

Although the domestic market faces many challenges, the monthly report also points out the possible change trend in the future. With the arrival of seasonal consumption peak season, it is expected that the price decline of fresh milk will gradually narrow in the later period. This is mainly due to the seasonal increase in consumers' demand for dairy products and the inventory of some dairy enterprises in advance to prepare for the peak season. However, experts also warned that due to the slow pace of domestic capacity optimization and consumption recovery, the inflection point of fresh milk prices has not yet emerged, and the market still needs to remain cautious.

In the international market, the global milk supply remained stable on the whole, while consumer demand showed a rebound trend. This change provides space for international dairy prices to rise. Experts from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs pointed out that with the gradual recovery of the global economy, consumers' demand for dairy products is expected to further increase, thus driving up the price of international dairy products. For domestic dairy enterprises, this may mean an increase in import costs, but it also provides more opportunities for exports.

From the customs statistics, the import and export situation of dairy products in China has also shown some changes. In August, China's dairy product imports fell 4.1% year on year, and the import volume fell 1.4% year on year. The cumulative data from January to August showed that both the import volume and the import volume of dairy products declined significantly, down 13.7% and 16.8% year on year respectively. At the same time, the export volume and export volume of dairy products showed a growth trend, with year-on-year growth of 42.2% and 7.3% respectively. This change reflects that China's dairy market is gradually adjusting and optimizing the import and export structure.

By category, the import volume of dairy products such as fresh milk, yogurt, whey powder, cream, cheese, raw milk powder and infant formula milk powder has declined to varying degrees. Among them, the import volume of fresh milk and yogurt decreased significantly year on year, reaching 15.1% and 30.6% respectively. This change may be related to the increase of independent R&D and production efforts of domestic dairy enterprises, and the increase of consumer trust in domestic dairy products.