Comments: Rubber In The Afternoon Is Strong &Nbsp, Metal Or Virtual High.

Shanghai metal opened high in early trading, trading weaker than yesterday.

The main contracts of Shanghai copper, Shanghai aluminum and Shanghai zinc were 57330, 15325 and 17035, respectively, rising by 720, 30 and 375 yuan respectively.

Judging from today's trend, overnight LME metal first suppressed Shanghai's market to provide popularity. Shanghai's metal jumped early in the morning. Although the stock market's weakness made the action in the metal market insufficient, Shanghai copper, Shanghai aluminum and Shanghai zinc were in a narrow concussion.

The spot market, copper traders active shipping, but the downstream buying is not strong.

The overall turnover of aluminum market is still slack.

The purchase intention of the lower reaches of zinc is not strong, and the turnover is light.

At present, the macro level is still the leading factor in the metal market.

Recently, the US property market, manufacturing and durable goods orders are not good, and the market is worried about the US economic growth, and it is holding down the metal market risk preference.

At present, the metal short line rebound to the 5 day moving average pressure level, pay attention to this resistance to the metal market effectiveness.

If the resistance is effective, the metal market will continue to be vulnerable under the pressure of risk aversion.

The copper market was strong on Thursday, supporting Japan's intervention in the foreign exchange market and the possible rescue of the United States, but before the US government took measures, it was still difficult to get rid of the weak pattern.

The paction can still be held over the table, but attention should be paid to the validity of the US dollar index 10 day moving average 82.86.

Aluminum prices continue to be weak and shock, and trading is empty.

Zinc prices rebounded to near $2023 on the 5 day moving average, although the short-term zinc price has been repeated, but the weak economic data reduced the overall risk appetite of the market, so the zinc price trend is down.

Fuel oil: fuel oil: NYMEX crude oil futures closed up on Wednesday, although US crude oil and refined oil storage increased to a record high.

Market analysis: recent market is concerned about the trend of economic data and stock market. At present, oil market is gradually entering the consumption off-season. Consumption slowdown is still a problem. But in the short term, the market is digesting the impact of record oil stocks, the oil price rebounds in the short term, but the medium term is still weak.

Rubber: today, Shanghai Rubber re stands to 25000 yuan / ton above, around 25200 yuan / ton to start concussion. At present, the macro and peripheral market trend is not optimistic, but the basic glue is strong.

India, the world's second largest rubber consumer, says it may reduce its import tariffs on natural rubber by 20%, because its domestic bulk consumers are facing a shortage of raw materials.

Domestic and foreign spot prices are still strong, Thailand rubber prices remain at a high level, mainly Thailand will begin to levy export tax impact in October 1st.

The domestic spot price did not follow the downward trend of futures prices.

At present, the export problem of China's tire industry is getting smaller and smaller. In July, China's tire exports were 36 million 250 thousand, with a growth of 5.

9%, the volume of exports is high, and the share of exports has increased from 47.75% last month to 57.84% this month.

From the fundamentals of natural rubber, it is still good news.

This wave of rubber glue is mainly driven by technical pressure and the surrounding market, which will continue to exist in the short term. But in the long run, because of the basic preference, the gum will continue to rise, and it is expected to break through the previous high.

PVC: PVC still continues weak market, domestic PVC enterprises have stable factory price, shipments are still more general, stock pressure is not large, and northwest freight forwarding is improving.

Futures rebounded to enhance manufacturers belief in price, the middle and lower reaches of the procurement initiative is still biased.

Looking at the recent trend of domestic PVC futures, we can see that a weak PVC has not followed the weakening of the peripheral market, and shows that PVC trend is stronger from another aspect. Therefore, more single operations can be considered in the near future.

LLDPE: Plastic tail pulls up again, pressure on the empty, is expected to see tomorrow's rise, or re impact on the top 10700.

In terms of fundamentals, spot prices rose slightly, but turnover was relatively general.

The continued rise in the price of ethylene monomer will lay a solid foundation for further development in the future, or will gradually show the effect in the later stage.

The middle and the long lines can still be held on the operation.

PTA: crude oil rebounded above $72 on Wednesday night, PX maintained 900-940 interval oscillation, Thursday PTA spot atmosphere is still good, PTA market atmosphere is better, the mainstream price of the internal market is about 7300-7350 yuan / ton, the Taiwan goods are quoted separately to 900 US dollars / ton, the actual delivery price is scarce. The downstream polyester factory has a small price increase performance, but the sales performance is still general.

Beans continue callback market overall medium term bullish

Beans: due to the current confirmation of soybean production in the United States, there is still some time to go, and the space for the downward continuation of the price is limited. The bean has temporarily formed a pull trend at the one thousand pass. With the advent of the new bean market, if the market can not get substantial positive factors, the bean still faces the pressure of increasing supply; the future market will focus on the change of the unit yield in some parts of the production area and the surrounding commodity environment.

As of August 23rd, the domestic main port soybean inventory was about 6 million 78 thousand tons.

At the same time, due to the sharp rise in domestic and foreign grain prices in July, domestic inflation expectations are rising again.

At present, there are still nearly 6 million 500 thousand tons of domestic beans in the National Reserve Bank. Although rumors of dumping and storage have not yet been confirmed, before the new soybean listing in China, the national reserve does have the need to throw and store it for tending.

Operation advice: bean back on the 4000 pass, rolling short.

It is advisable to make short meal with light meal.

Oils and fats: there is no good news on the fundamentals of soybean oil, spot trading is light, and the market adjustment atmosphere is strong.

At present, the technology is weak in the short term, but the downside space is not clear. It is suggested that the empty list should continue to hold and investors should be patient.

Corn: Recently, the domestic spot market has maintained a strong trend. No matter what the market source of grain is getting tighter, or the slow recovery of feed demand and the increase in the cost of imported corn are all providing support.

In the short term, if the country does not introduce a new regulatory policy, which is dominated by market supply and demand, then the spot market will continue to be strong.

Therefore, in the near future, we should pay close attention to the trend of national policies and make new adjustments to the auction activities. The buyers and sellers can take the opportunity temporarily. The inventory level is low, enterprises can still go deep into the origin procurement, and the stockpiling is more suitable for grain merchants to sell in batches.

Pay attention to crop growth in main producing areas.

Medium term Shanghai Jin still look bad economic data or incentives.

On Thursday, Shanghai Gold jumped again. The price volatility in early trading was lower, and the afternoon trading was down. The main contract in December decreased, and the position increased slightly. Most positions were increased at noon, and the price volume ratio showed that there was a certain divergence in the price.

On Tuesday, the international gold price first suppressed and then lifted, the lowest intraday price dropped to around $1210, and the price continued to rise Wednesday night, creating a new high of $1241.35.

On the London golden day line, the swing index is still near the overbought zone, but the adjustment trend is postponed.

The ETF fund added 1.1 tons on Wednesday, and the fund is still optimistic about gold price.

On Tuesday night, the US housing sales rate fell sharply to 3 million 830 thousand in July, far below the market forecast of 4 million 700 thousand households, the lowest in 95 years since May, and the June figures were revised down to 5 million 260 thousand households. The new housing sales in July, which were announced on Wednesday night, also dropped sharply to 276 thousand households, which was second lower in history.

Data show that the real estate market in the United States is extremely weak.

The US durable goods orders in July grew by only 0.3%, down 2.8% from market expectations.

The GDP value of the 2 quarter will also be available for the rest of the week. The market generally expects Q2GDP to drop sharply to 1.4%, down 1 percentage points from the first quarter.

The unexpected weakness of the US economy will result in the withdrawal of some of the funds from the US dollar, while the US dollar's risk aversion will also decrease, which will benefit the gold price.

Overall, there are some new positive factors in the fundamentals of gold. In the medium term, we should maintain more ideas and look for more opportunities along the upward trend line.

In the short term, the technical side and the capital side temporarily do not support gold prices to pull up again, and the fundamentals are faced with the publication of numerous data. If the data are again beyond expectations, the price of gold is expected to fluctuate drastically, so it is recommended that the healthy people wait for a while.