Shanghai Securities: Market'S Immunity To Policy Is Strengthening.
October
Pressure to raise interest rates
ease up
At present, economic growth, price and exchange rate are the three dimensional coordinates of our monetary policy instrument to determine the central bank's action interest rate.
The current state of the "three-dimensional coordinate" determines the short-term interest rate increase to be a small probability event.
Bank stocks, which are under pressure from capital expansion and asymmetric interest rate increases, may have a breathing space in October.
Market has partially digested real estate "
Preventive
Regulatory pressure
9, at the end of the month, the policy side introduced the "five upgraded versions of the" ten new countries ".
We believe that with the increase in push volume in October, the runaway housing price is a small probability event.
The weakness of real estate stocks has partly digested the "preventive" regulatory pressure.
In October, the market's immunity to real estate regulation and control will be enhanced.
"
Mid-term elections
Unsustainable power
Before the mid-term elections in November, the overseas stock market will show a strong stage performance, which will provide indirect support for the A share market in October.
But by comparing the characteristics of liquidity release and asset price fluctuation at the time of "two stimulus", we believe that the second round economic stimulus plan with strong political inclination will not be too lasting for the positive role of the financial market.
The appreciation of the renminbi is more expedient than political exchange. It is not an established trend. Asset price inflation driven by hot money inflows will be lower than market expectations.
The 12th Five-Year plan deepens the expectation of "structural adjustment"
We believe that the focus of the 12th Five-Year plan is economic restructuring, which focuses on promoting income structure and industrial restructuring.
The strength of the previous consumption and emerging industries has been fully reflected in the above policy expectations, and the overall impetus for the market in October is not strong enough.
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