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Terminal Consumption Slipped To &Nbsp, And Brand Clothing Companies Had Higher Operational Risks.

2011/12/16 20:46:00 40

Terminal Consumer Clothing Brand Public Risk

Terminal consumption

In the early days of decline, brand clothing companies have higher operational risks.

cautious

。

We believe that in the next half year, the macro economic background is not good. Brand clothing is a highly selective consumer product, and its terminal sales elasticity is relatively large. Therefore, it is expected that the growth of brand clothing terminal consumption will be more obvious in the future.

From the recent industry and company data, the terminal downward trend has taken shape and is expected to decline further in the next half year.

At present, the operating risks of listed companies are generally large, and accounts receivable, inventory and other aspects have significantly deteriorated compared with the same period last year.

channel

There are more stocks, and orders will increase generally in the early summer of 2012. Therefore, the inventory of franchisees is expected to increase further in the next half year, and higher operational risk will enlarge terminal consumption in the future.

Slide downward

The impact.

The three logic filters the investment target in bear market.

We believe that the companies with higher growth expectations next year will have relatively high space in the future handover of valuation handover. At present, companies with relatively small operating risks have stronger ability to resist systemic risks, and the market with relatively weak elasticity in subdivision and positioning is relatively small.

Based on the above logic, we are relatively optimistic about the three or four consumer areas with relatively low consumption elasticity and strong competitiveness.

Textile and garment manufacturing industry is turning out and will be difficult to invest in the future.

With the rapid increase of labor force in recent years and the appreciation of RMB exchange rate, the cost advantage of textile and garment industry in export has disappeared.

Since the beginning of this year, the major textile and garment importing countries such as the United States and Japan have begun to reduce the share of imports from China, which means that the trend of textile clothing manufacturing industry has gradually shifted out, and it is expected that the industry will not be available in the long run.

Investment

Opportunity.