Traders' Bonded Cotton And Customs Clearance Cotton Prices Were Basically Not Adjusted In November 6Th.

In November 5th, the ICE disk was in a "dilemma" situation. In the short term, it was still difficult to shake off and adjust the pattern. The direction was still unclear, and the contract closed to the 70 cents / pound mark in December. On the one hand, China's public inspection lint more than 83% of them entered the national treasury, while in 2013,

Quota issuance will be "strictly tight". Under the premise that the quality and output of real estate cotton are all depressed, domestic cotton prices or the power to hit bottom rebound can not be ignored by ICE. On the other hand, cotton is in line with ICE delivery conditions, and cotton prices have increased significantly. The external market, especially grain products prices, have been dragging down the formation of ICE cotton futures. The main position of ICE cotton futures is moving to the March contract, and the extension of trading will make the December contract trend relatively weak.

Analysis of the industry, in the middle of November ICE12 month contract or will continue to explore the bottom of 70-73 cents, but the middle and long line fell 70 or even 68 cents, the possibility of pushing towards 65 cents pass.

November 6th, domestic ports

商保税棉、清关棉的报价基本未做调整，一方面是一些大中型进口商经过9、10月份的集中甩货，外棉库存压力已有明显减轻，虽然进口外棉的亏损额度普遍在3000元/吨甚至4000元/吨以上，但流动资金短期得到补充，几家大型贸易公司保税棉集中在4000-8000吨，在港保税棉超过10000吨的并不多，在中国政府收储量已近200万吨的情况下，贸易商赌高等级棉短缺的情绪正在恢复;另一方面无论从可用的进口配额数量还是年底前可选择的进口外棉品种、数量上来讲都没有多大空间，明年2月中旬前到港的保税棉、船期棉并不发愁进入不了中国市场，印度棉因出口政策弹性比较大，而且相对美棉、西非棉价格优势已不大，中国进口企业大多不肯签“免责”或“要替代”交货条件。

Recently, some foreign businessmen tried to figure out the number of contracts that the domestic cotton importers would push to 2013. If the spot price of ICE and foreign cotton in 2013 remained unchanged, how many of these contracts could be implemented, and some importers estimated that the total import contract to be executed in 2013 would be no less than 400 thousand tons, which could theoretically import, accounting for about 50% of the 894 thousand tons of cotton import quotas.

In November 6th, a cotton trader in Qingdao quotes, India cotton S-61-5/32 "adopts 40% full tariff import quotation of 18300-18350 yuan / ton, S-61-1/8" imports 40% yuan in full tariff, 18100-18150 yuan / ton, and Australia cotton SM1-5/32 "clear cotton" price is as high as 20500-20600 yuan / ton, SM1-1/8 "Zimbabwe cotton price 19350-19400 yuan / ton."

According to the quotation, the price of outer cotton is still 300-500 yuan / ton price difference compared with Xinjiang cotton (considering cotton grade and spinnability, net weight and public settlement), but most of them are used.

Industry, the lack of import quotas is the biggest obstacle to the entry of cheap cotton.