The Difference Between Domestic And Foreign Cotton Prices Is Narrowed.

At the end of March, the 2012 countries' purchase and storage and the first batch of dumping and storage in 2013 will end. The policy control of the cotton market in the later period will be mainly based on continuous dumping and sliding tax quota, and the market seesaw will be temporarily absent. It is expected that with the development of dumping and storage, the market supply will become increasingly adequate, and there will be downward pressure on cotton prices.

The main supporting factors gradually weaken in the post purchase and storage era.

China this year cotton The market's supporting kinetic energy is nothing more than the policy of purchasing and storing up. In the context of poor market atmosphere, the 20400 yuan / ton purchase and storage price is very attractive. Statistics show that as of March 21st, 2012 cotton temporary storage and storage totaled 6 million 430 thousand tons, accounting for more than two times the total amount of storage and purchase in 2011. Among them, 2 million 160 thousand tons were traded in the mainland, 2 million 540 thousand tons in Xinjiang, and 1 million 727 thousand tons in key enterprises. 6 million 430 thousand tons of imported reserves account for 90.6% of the total 7 million 94 thousand tons of cotton inspection. If we calculate the cotton output of 7 million 620 thousand tons according to the latest report of the US Department of agriculture in March, the current incoming reserves have reached 84% of the domestic cotton output this year.

After large scale storage and storage, the quantity of cotton that can be circulated in the market is reduced. Cotton spinning enterprises are obviously short of cotton, especially for high-grade cotton, and provide certain support for cotton spot and futures prices. However, the purchasing and storage policy will be officially opened in the end of 2012, when the market price support factor of 20400 yuan / ton will be weakened.

The accumulative suppression effect of throwing and storing on cotton price is getting more and more obvious.

At the beginning of the year to solve the problem of large-scale storage and purchase. Spin With regard to the shortage of cotton, the state began to implement the strategic policy of selling state cotton and selling cotton. This is the first time that China has carried out the policy of purchasing and storing cotton and throwing away the national cotton for the first time. However, at the early stage of the implementation of the policy, the textile enterprises did not buy it, and the daily turnover rate showed a downward trend. However, with the upgrading of the quality of the sold cotton and the gradual turnover of the daily volume, the actual daily turnover of the cotton reserves basically remained at 20 thousand tons. According to the survey, as of March 6th, the average number of cotton stocks used by the enterprises surveyed was 40.8 days (including the quantity of cotton imported to Hong Kong), an increase of 4.2 days, and an increase of 3.5 days over the average level of nearly three years. At the same time, the national cotton industry inventory is 893 thousand tons, an increase of 11.5%. The increase in the number of days used in cotton enterprises and the increase in industrial inventories show that the tight situation of domestic cotton has been effectively improved.

Since the beginning of dumping in September 2012, a total of 1 million 354 thousand tons of cotton have been released from the warehouse. The first batch of dumping and storage policy will end at the end of the month, and the second batch of selling will continue. There are more versions of the market rumors. However, as long as the policy of dumping and storage continues, the price of cotton will be more reflected in the pressure of dumping and storage as the amount of dumping and storage is increased and the factors affecting the storage and storage will weaken.

The difference between inside and outside cotton prices is narrowed, and arbitrage investment can continue.

Since the beginning of 2013, the US cotton has maintained a strong upward trend, but Zheng cotton has been on the rise in the oscillation. The price trend of external strength and internal weakness has narrowed the price gap at home and abroad, which has been reduced from the high point of 4953 yuan / ton to the current 3061 yuan / ton, and the decrease has reached 1892 yuan / ton. It is expected that the US cotton will continue its high position under the influence of the speculative fund's long held positions and the expected reduction of cotton planting area in the new year, while Zheng cotton will be in the end when the purchasing and storage is coming to an end and the main market supporting factors will fall behind the curtain. In this regard, investors pay close attention to the arbitrage operation of internal and external cotton. {page_break}

Post policy Libra bias

According to past practice, the state Cotton collection and storage The policy was basically released during the cotton farmers' preparation period, that is, in early March, in order to stabilize the cotton farmers' intention to plant cotton. However, this year, the policy of collection and storage is not officially listed below. There were many rumors in the early market. During the two sessions, leaders of various departments also had new proposals, namely, changing the traditional mode of purchasing and storing, and directly subsidized cotton farmers. No matter what way the country adopts, the ultimate goal is to stabilize the sown area of cotton. Our country has been collecting and storing for two years, and the cotton price has stabilized the fluctuating trend. It is basically stable. Therefore, for the new year's cotton purchase and storage policy, the author thinks that the state will continue to collect and store the work, but the mode will change accordingly. The unlimited storage will not continue, and the price will not increase again by 600 yuan / ton.

In regard to the policy of dumping and storage, the previous countries have issued a document, and will continue to sell cotton reserves according to the demand of textile consumption market. The time will last until the end of July, and the total selling volume will be 4 million 500 thousand tons. Such a large scale of sale can basically guarantee the daily use of cotton in textile enterprises. However, with the increase in the number of dumping and storage, the suppression of cotton prices will also intensify.

For cotton sliding allowance quotas, textile enterprises have recently received notice of quotas, while the cost of cotton imports is still 3000 yuan / ton lower than the domestic spot price, so the issuance of quotas still poses some pressure on Zheng cotton prices.

Based on the above analysis, the author believes that in the era of post purchase and storage, with the weakening of the supporting effect of purchasing and storage, the probability of cotton price descending will increase at the end of the national dumping and import quota policy, and the selling price will be high at the end of the operation, and the first target will be 20000 yuan / ton.