New Policy Of Cotton Throwing And Storing

With the coming year cotton After the announcement of the new policy of storage and storage and the late policy of throwing away the storage, Zheng cotton, which had been relatively strong after the Spring Festival, began to weaken. In April 19th, the 1309 contract of cotton (19930, -30.00, -0.15%) fell below the 19900 yuan / ton line and received the Long Yin line. However, the author believes that under the support of the policy of purchasing and storing the next year, the downlink space of Zheng cotton is limited, and the problem of warehouse receipts is still unsolved. The new rules of throwing the storage will bring bad profits to the market or bring a good opportunity to buy hedging and some speculative investors.

　　 The support effect of 2013/2014 storage policy remains

In April 10, 2013, the plan for the temporary storage and storage of cotton in 2013 was officially announced, considering comprehensively protecting the interests of cotton farmers and maintaining Spin The export competitiveness and other factors determine that the price of cotton temporary purchase and storage in 2013 will be 20400 yuan / ton from the standard grade lint to the storehouse, which will continue to be opened and stored, and the quality of storage and purchase will be carried out according to the new cotton standard. However, since the market had long anticipated the policy, Zheng cotton began to decline continuously, which could be understood as a positive outcome.

The short term fall is the result of a long profit in the early stage, and the support effect of the late 20400 yuan / ton purchase and storage price remains. In fact, the market continued to open up and store up 20400 yuan / ton price for the government as early as expected. The price of Zheng cotton was also close to 20400 yuan / ton ahead of schedule. In spite of the fact that there are no changes in the purchase and storage price and part of the rules, the policy of purchasing and storage in 2013 is different from that in 2012. When the policy of purchasing and storage was implemented in 2012, the stock market of Chen cotton and imported cotton was more abundant in the spot market. However, after the purchase and storage of 6 million 510 thousand tons of cotton in 2012, the spot market resources have been very limited, and the increase in international cotton prices has led to the weakening of import enthusiasm. When the implementation of the purchase and storage policy in 2013, the spot price will surely close to the 20400 yuan / ton storage price.

　 The new fine storage will bring short-term pressure, and the actual profits will be limited.

Following the announcement of the plan for the temporary storage and purchase of cotton in 2013, in April 18th, the national cotton exchange market and the China Cotton Reserve Management Corporation jointly issued a notice on the policy adjustment of the cotton storage. The announcement said that the current round of cotton placement will end in July 31, 2013, and that part of the 2011 cotton imports and 2012 temporary storage and storage of cotton will be put into operation in the late stage, and the mainland textile enterprises will be allowed to buy Cotton stored in the Xinjiang area.

This announcement not only led to the decline of the US cotton market on the 18 day, but also led to a sharp fall in the 19 day of Zheng cotton, and the main CF1309 contract fell below 19900 yuan / ton. The market will understand that the domestic cotton market will be abundant in the later stage, but the author thinks that the increase in throwing and storage and the increase of new cotton are only targeted to the textile enterprises that meet the requirements. That is to say, they are not allowed to circulate in the spot market, and will not increase the circulation resources of the existing commodity market. The volume of the enterprises entering into the enterprises also needs to see the enthusiasm of the latter enterprises, and the actual profits are limited. The fall not only brought short-term vitality to cotton's long silenced species, but also brought opportunities for buyers and speculators and some speculators. Data show that the main net positions of the top 20 positions in zhengmian began to shift more than last week, and the net number increased sharply to 8218 on Friday.

　 The warehouse receipt problem is still unsolved.

At the time when there were only more than 10 trading days from the May contract delivery, the state announced the new rules for throwing and storing the goods. The rules did not mention the permitted circulation of cotton reserves, that is to say, allowing the throwing and storing of cotton to be made into warehouse receipts. Previous market rumors will allow imported cotton to enter the domestic futures instead of delivery. From the specific factors such as the quota control policy, circulation restrictions, internal and external cotton quality indicators, game interests between departments, system design and time scales, the imported cotton will be more difficult to replace delivery.

To sum up, under the support of next year's storage policy, Zheng cotton's downlink space is limited, and at present, the warehouse receipt problem is still unresolved. Zheng cotton main contract has a greater possibility of maintaining the 19800 to 20500 yuan / ton interval oscillation, and the new rules for throwing and storing 1309 pairs are released. market The bad opportunity or the opportunity to buy the hedging and some speculative investors will suggest that investors buy at a price of 19900 yuan / ton.