China'S Huge Cotton Reserves Policy Or Will Continue

< p > dumping or storage will continue at the end of July, and the total number of throwing and storing cotton will reach 2 million 699 thousand and 200 tons as of July 4th. The turnover ratio will remain at about 30%, and the proportion of imported cotton will be much higher than that of domestic cotton.

Among them, China made 2 million 186 thousand and 300 tons of cotton and 512 thousand and 900 tons of imported cotton (including 80 thousand and 500 tons in 2005, 31 thousand and 400 tons in 2009, 401 thousand tons in 2011 year).

The adjustment of such policies is crucial to the development of a target= "_blank" href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/" > strong > textile < /strong > /a > a target= "_blank", "a" and "clothing".

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Since July, the number of throwing and storing cotton plans has increased from 100 thousand tons to 300 thousand tons before, but the turnover rate has decreased. According to the average daily turnover of 50 thousand tons, there are 19 working days from the end of the dumping and storage. By the end of July, the total number of throwing and storing cotton is about 3 million 500 thousand to 3 million 600 thousand tons, far below the 4 million 500 thousand tons of the planned dumping capacity of P.

According to the quota of 3:1 for throwing and storing cotton, there are about 1 million 200 thousand tons of quotas.

In 2013 and May, the number of imported cotton was 2 million 140 thousand tons, excluding the quota of 890 thousand tons and the amount of cotton in the Port Free Trade Zone, and the quota for the next year was pferred to the next year. It is estimated that the quota of the market is 500 thousand to 600 thousand tons in 1.

In view of this, there may be a short period of cotton circulation tension before the end of July after the end of the dumping.

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< p > the limited area of sowing area is limited. According to the relevant website survey, in 2012, the national a target= "_blank" href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/" > strong > cotton < /strong > /a > the planting area was about 74 million 80 thousand mu, and the output was 7 million 470 thousand tons.

It is estimated that the cotton planting area will be 70 million 650 thousand mu in 2013, a decrease of 3 million 430 thousand mu compared with that of the previous year, with a reduction of 4.6%. It is estimated that the total output of cotton will be 7 million 50 thousand tons in 2013, a decrease of 5.6% over the previous year.

By the end of May, except for summer sown cotton, the cotton pplanting in China basically ended.

At present, the cotton seedling situation in the two river basins is basically the same as that in the same period of the same year.

Pay attention to the influence of late weather on cotton quality.

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< p > the difference between the contracts in the near and far months is obvious. Up to July 4th, 184 new cotton warehouse receipts (7360 tons) in Zhengshang have been effectively forecast for 35.

Zhengmian 1309 contract squeezing is expected to increase, the disk price is strong, the average alignment is better.

Zheng cotton 1401 contract trend wavering, week average line is sticky.

Since the listing of zhengmian 1405, it has been weakening. The downward trend of the weekly K line has led to a sharp drop in the two day last week, resulting in the widening of the contract price in the near and far months.

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< p > zhengmian 1401 contract and 1405 contract belong to the contract after 2013/2014's receipt and storage, but the difference between them is obvious.

If the 2013/2014 reserves are huge and the support strength of the 1401 contract will be strengthened, then there will still be a shortage of contracts or shortage of cotton in the 1405 contracts. If the 2013/2014 is affected by the rules and the purchase and storage is not as expected, then 1401 of the contracts will bear pressure and 1405 of the contracts will also be dragged down.

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Above all, the domestic stock is huge, and the policy of reserve and storage will continue. Under the uncertain background of the 2013/2014 storage and purchase rules, P will be short of ideas for Zheng cotton and yuan.

With the acceleration of late dumping and the low probability of correction after commodity collapse, cotton will be left behind or overrun once more funds are gathered.

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