Home >

PTA's Slow Rise May Be Another Rebound.

2014/6/1 8:28:00 95

from the perspective of futures prices, PTA reached its all-time high in February 2011, that is, 12396 yuan per ton. After that, prices continued to decline, and the price dropped to 5990 yuan per ton in May 2014, a drop of 50%. PTA has rebounded since May 9th and has been on the rise since then. What leads to price increases, can this price rise be sustained? Is price rising from supply and demand or by human factors? 
 PTA is closely related to life. /p >
 the public has always been a stranger to PTA, but bringing up clothes will surely arouse the discussion and concern of countless beautiful women. PTA is an important raw material for synthetic fabrics. PTA, terephthalic acid, is white crystal or powder at room temperature, low toxic and flammable. If mixed with air, it can burn or even explode within a certain limit. It is one of the most important bulk organic materials, and is widely used in all aspects of national economy, such as chemical fiber, light industry, electronics and architecture. In the domestic market, 75% of PTA is used to produce polyester fibers. 
 polyester fiber, commonly known as polyester. < a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp" > polyester < /a > can be used to make special materials such as bulletproof vest, safety belt, tire cord, fishing net, rope, filter cloth and insulation material, etc. Polyester is mainly used as a kind of textile material. Polyester filament is used by textile enterprises to produce chemical fiber cloth, and polyester staple fiber is generally blended with cotton. 
 PTA, though closely related to people's lives, is inseparable. But recently, PTA was faced with the embarrassment of overproduction, and the price of futures and spot fell and fell again until recently. 
 three causes PTA < a href= > //www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp > price > /a > rise > /strong > /p >
 according to the information of May 20th, the 600 thousand tons PTA device of Jialong Petrochemical Company had been stopped in May 15th, and the factory planned to stop for 2-3 weeks. On the same day, the Hainan Yisheng 2 million 200 thousand ton PTA plant accidentally stopped because of the device failure, and the factory planned to stop for 8-10 days. In May 21st, Shanghai Petrochemical 400 thousand tons PTA plant plans to stop and repair in May 26th, and the parking time is about a month. 
 this is just the tip of the iceberg. According to incomplete statistics, there will be at least 4 million tons of PTA device overhaul and shutdown from the end of May to June, which will lead to a rapid decline of PTA's starting rate from 62% in early May to 62%. 
 except for the reduction in production caused by PTA, the increase in production costs is also one of the reasons. PX is the main raw material of PTA, and price changes directly affect the cost. In the existing PX installations, China Qingdao Li Dong (700 thousand tons), Taiwan CPC (660 thousand tons), South Korea HC (800 thousand tons), Indonesia TPPI (550 thousand tons), Japan JX (1 million 20 thousand tons), South Korea GS (350 thousand tons) have been or are about to stop and repair between 5 and June, the total scale of these devices is 4 million 80 thousand tons. In May and June, PX will go through the process of inventory, and to a certain extent, it will increase the price of PTA. 
The third reason for the rise of a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp" > PTA < /a is related to the change of international oil price. PTA is the lower end product of petroleum. After a certain process, the petroleum produces light gasoline (alias naphtha), extracts MX (mixed xylene) from naphtha, and extracts PX (p-xylene), and after some column processing and production, it produces the product of refined terephthalic acid, that is, PTA finished product. Therefore, the price of oil has an important effect on PTA, and it will be passed to PTA through PX, and this interaction can be seen from the US crude oil futures price. In May 1st, crude oil prices began to bottom up and then rose all the way. At the same time, the price of PTA also began to rebound, and, like the US crude oil, it has been in a rally. 
 enterprise's production reduction is compelling. /p >
 from the behavior of enterprises themselves, the reduction of production may be the last resort. Pursuing profit is the goal of enterprise operation. When the product is not profitable, measures will be taken naturally. The reduction of production is not a spur of the moment. Starting this year, the production and production increase of each enterprise is going on alternately. 
 during the Spring Festival, there was less chemical production in the month. The polyester link increased from 55% to 77% during the Spring Festival, and the demand for PTA began to accelerate. In the process, the spot price of PTA rose from 6090 yuan / ton to 6560 yuan / ton, and the main 1409 contract rose from 6132 yuan / ton to 6666 yuan / ton. Then, from March to April, when the PTA social inventory reached a record high of 2 million 500 thousand tons (estimated value), the PTA plant began to implement a large-scale overhaul. At that time, PTA production capacity totaled 34 million 500 thousand tons, and the maintenance scale was as high as 8 million tons. 
Under the traditional peak season of "P four", PET production and sales are good, and the inventory of middle and lower reaches has dropped to a lower level since the middle of March. Seeing that industry profits have risen, the PTA plant has been unable to restrain production. After the Qingming Festival, the PTA factory operation rate has risen from less than 60% to 82.5%. At this point, polyester production and marketing began to fall, prices gradually stabilized, the demand for PTA began to decline. Naturally, the PTA price dropped sharply, all below 6000 yuan / ton. By May, the price of PTA had bottomed out, and the number of installations was increasing. The futures price of PTA slowly rebounded under the stimulation of shutdown. 
After P Spring Festival, PTA manufacturers have repeatedly swung between production and production to increase profits and reduce losses. From a company's point of view, sustained strong demand is essential if we want better profits. However, judging from the development of the industry, there are still many obstacles. 
 although PTA has rebounded in recent days, it does not mean a fundamental change in the contradiction between supply and demand. When the downstream production and marketing stage falls, the market will enter the consumption off-season, and raw material demand will return to the plain. By that time, the rebound of PTA will end there.