China'S Cotton Industry Has Improved Its Prosperity And Stability.

Output: National Bureau of statistics, 2014

The sowing area was 63 million 286 thousand mu, a decrease of 2.9% compared with the same period last year, and the total output of cotton was 6 million 161 thousand tons, a decrease of 2.2% compared with that of the previous year. The average cotton yield per unit area was 97.4 kg / mu, up 0.7% over the same period last year.

According to the statistics of China Cotton Association, in 2014, the total area of cotton planting in China was 63 million 397 thousand mu, down 9.35% from the same period last year. The meteorological conditions were better than last year. The cotton yield per unit area increased by 2%, and the cotton output in the whole country was 6 million 504 thousand tons, down 7.11% from the same period last year.

According to Breck research, driven by the target policy, the cotton planting enthusiasm of Xinjiang cotton area is relatively high, and the sown area of the cotton area in the mainland is decreasing greatly.

The picking period of some cotton areas in Xinjiang is affected by frost and other factors. Cotton production is slightly lower than that predicted in the previous period. This period will temporarily maintain 6 million 320 thousand tons of cotton output in 2014/15.

Consumption: in December, the boom of the textile industry was improved, and the start-up rate and orders improved. The raw materials for downstream textile stocks were in urgent need, and the willingness to replenishment was stronger.

Driven by rigid replenishment, market turnover has been restored, mainly in the purchase of high quality cotton and high-grade cotton, and the demand for low grade cotton is still weak.

According to market rumors, the quota issuance of new year is linked to the purchase ratio of Xinjiang cotton, Xinjiang cotton has improved markedly and is stepping up its pfer to the mainland.

In November, China imported 164 thousand tons of cotton yarn, a decrease of 5.2%, a decrease of 6.7% compared with the same period last year, a decrease of 1.4 percentage points from the previous month.

In 1-11 months, 1 million 800 thousand tons of cotton yarn were imported from China, and the cumulative total decreased by 6.7% compared with the same period last year.

Imported

The quotation continues to be callback, the overall shipment is not smooth, but the impact on domestic cotton consumption and domestic medium and low grade yarn is still more obvious. At present, port inventory has dropped to less than 60 thousand tons.

Cotton is still facing a high inventory and low consumption pattern in the new year. It is expected that consumption in 14/15 will be slightly better than that in 13/14. This period will maintain the estimated 7 million 300 thousand tons of cotton consumption in 13/14, and temporarily maintain the estimated 7 million 500 thousand tons of cotton consumption in 14/15.

Import and export: in November, China imported 91 thousand and 500 tons of cotton, a decrease of 47% compared with the same period last year, an increase of 11.7% in the ring ratio.

In 2014/15, as of November, China imported 296 thousand and 300 tons of cotton, a decrease of 42% compared to the same period last year.

In December, the quotations were stable, and the difference between domestic and foreign cotton prices was further narrowed. However, the port's high-grade cotton resources were scarce and prices were strong.

The quantity of cotton arrived in port has been reduced, and the market quotas have been priced at 1000 yuan / ton. Traders generally do not think much of the market. There is no good news for the market, and the price of cotton is expected to remain weak.

Relevant departments announced no additional import in 2015

The import space of cotton will obviously shrink. The market will mainly consume national cotton reserves. It is estimated that China's cotton imports will fall sharply in the new year. This period will temporarily maintain the forecast of 2 million tons in 14/15.

End inventory and inventory consumption ratio: 2013/14 end of the year inventory 11 million 750 thousand tons, inventory consumption ratio of 161%.

2014/15 end of the year inventory 12 million 560 thousand tons, inventory consumption ratio of 167%.