Do You Realize That Your Money Is Already On The Wall?

Reduce the expectation of return, as long as it is close to winning the "real inflation" (CPI is 2%, real inflation is probably M2 growth minus GDP growth), maintain better liquidity and wait for opportunities.

At this time, safety and patience are the most important.

A friend talked to me about investing, and I asked him how he did this year.

He said: since entering the stock market in March, it has gone through the mad cow and stock market disaster, and is still making a profit of 50%.

I congratulate him, he said calmly: "profits are all there, but the principal has lost all."

Of course, this is a paragraph, but it can reflect the survival state of today's shareholders.

This column appealed to retail investors to stay away from the stock market, but the question is, what can you invest from the stock market?

P2P? Almost all P2P's soft papers are mocking Ma Yun, claiming that their return rate is 3 times 4 times that of the balance.

But the problem is that investors will never be able to decide whether or not they have received the last stick.

The real economy is so bad that the stock allocation is also "dead". How can P2P earn more than 16% of the annual profits for investors? Unless they put the wind into it, how long can it be posted?

Of course, some excellent P2P companies can not be ruled out, but the vast majority of enterprises are more troublesome.

Can they live to this time next year? So, if you want to participate in P2P investment, it is better to adopt the "33 system": the total investment will not exceed 1/3 of your "investment", and the investment should be dispersed to at least three strong shareholders.

Real estate? If you have money, there are indicators to buy ordinary housing, cash flow is OK, I will suggest that you continue to buy a house in the north, the upper and the deep.

Attention should be paid to the purchase of ordinary housing in a better location.

But because of the restriction factor and the high housing price, there are few people who can make such investment.

Moreover, the house has become a slow asset and a long-term anti inflation tool.

In the short term, the rate of return may not be too high.

As for most small and medium-sized cities, stay away from the house unless you just need them.

In particular, the traditional commercial center of the shops, or the suburbs, new district "complex" shop, nine times out of ten are falling into a lifetime can not turn over the trap.

Dollars? Most ordinary residents do not have much overseas relations, are unlikely to emigrate, nor are they likely to buy overseas.

In the coming year, the renminbi will depreciate at most by about 10%. If there is no leverage, it will not mean much.

And the US dollar interest rate is low.

Low and low rate of return, compared with the renminbi, a few percentage points.

So unless you have children to travel, or there are other real needs, there is not much need to exchange dollars.

Dollar bonds? This is certainly an investment. But where do you buy it? The threshold is too high and the procedures are cumbersome, not the dishes of ordinary people.

In fact, domestic bonds and trust products are similar.

The risk of trust products is increasing and it is very difficult to choose.

Gold? That's more of a sluggish investment.

In the long run, for example, 10 or 20 years, gold must be stronger than the dollar and stronger than the renminbi.

But the real inflation is still not as good as the real estate in the central area of the big city with population growth.

Euro, Japanese yen, European debt,

And the real estate in Europe and Japan? Of course, these are options that can be made, but we are not Li Jiacheng, there is no professional to help us manage these assets, let alone we are restricted by the exchange rate of US $50 thousand per year, so we can only wash and sleep.

Some may ask:

What about it? 3000 o'clock, even Li Xiao Xiao has "somersault". It's the horizon. Can't we choose the long-term investment of stocks? What I want to say is that we must not be deceived by the average price earnings ratio. If we observe the median price earnings ratio, A shares are still expensive.

Your money is already on the wall! I also want to point out that according to the stock market tradition in China, the profits of listed companies are highly controlled.

These enterprises often make losses in bear market, make profits high in the bull market and make high delivery.

Therefore, we have reason to believe that the current A P / E ratio is spontaneously beautified by a listed company.

What's more, IPO registration reform is coming. A large number of truly high-quality private enterprises will be on the stage of the stock market.

Therefore, the IPO registration system will not be implemented without long-term investment.

The stocks you buy now basically contain "approval bubbles".

In the words of Mr. Li Qilin, two friends of the people's livelihood securities company, the pition from "money shortage" to "asset shortage" in the past few years.

We are facing "asset allocation shortage": Although we know that there is a sentence called "cash is king", but holding cash is like running naked, and always feel unrealistic, but there is no better choice.

At this time, "shortage" became "panic".