Economic Situation: Next Year Is Expected To Continue "Wide Fiscal And Stable Currency".

The central economic work conference will be held soon. How to set the tone for economic work in 2016 is the focus of this meeting.

According to the insiders, 2016 is the year when China's "13th Five-Year" plan opens, and it is also the key year for China's economy to enter a period of deep adjustment and pformation. The overall tone of economic work is expected to remain stable.

The policy is based on stability. In order to meet the needs of structural reform and steady growth of supply side, the combination of macroeconomic regulation and control with "active fiscal and stable currency" is more likely.

Insiders said that in view of the biggest structural change in the economy during the "13th Five-Year" period, it is expected that macroeconomic policies will continue to push ahead with reform next year.

Liu Yuanchun, Dean of the national development and Strategy Institute of Renmin University of China, said that 2016 was the first year of China's macro-economic development and the most difficult year in the near future.

Before the world economy bottomed out, China's economy still had a downward trend.

All kinds of macroeconomic indicators will fall further, and the micro operation mechanism will be further changed.

Monetary policy should be restructured in accordance with the requirements of the new era.

In the process of macroeconomic exploration, monetary policy should be shifted to "moderately relaxed" in a clear-cut way, so as to stabilize market expectations and break the vicious cycle of debt deflation and reverse pessimism.

"Moderately loose monetary policy + exchange rate stability + strengthening external macro prudential regulation" is still the core of economic fluctuations in the next two or three quarters.

We should adhere to the principle of "fiscal drainage and drainage of money," and propose strengthening the directional easing of the active fiscal policy. The deficit rate can reach about 3%, and the gross amount will reach about 2 trillion yuan. At the same time, the structural tax reduction will gradually turn to aggregate.

Reform the existing mode of financial payment.

Insiders said that pushing forward the supply side reform will be a major attraction of the central economic work conference.

Over the past month, the "supply side reform" has been highlighted several times at the top.

Pushing forward the supply side reform does not mean the withdrawal of demand policy.

Wang Yiming, deputy director of the development research center of the State Council, said that supply and demand should be coordinated. Supply side reform can create demand, and demand side tax cuts and other policies can also provide a loose environment for supply side reform.

Jia Kang, director of the Fiscal Science Research Institute of the former Ministry of finance, said that in China's macroeconomic regulation and control, supply management should be put in a long-term perspective and more emphasized and optimized.

While respecting the market plays a decisive role in the allocation of resources, it is also necessary for the government to combine the aggregate demand management with the structural supply management consciously, especially the rational supply management as an internal requirement and an important part of better playing the socialistic market economy with Chinese characteristics in the "13th Five-Year" and longer period.

In Jia Kang's view,

Environment and mechanism are imperative.

The supply side reform is inseparable from the comprehensive reform of administration, finance, state-owned enterprises, income distribution, price and investment.

It is suggested that the following measures should be taken to promote the supply side reform in a coordinated way. First, we should promote the reform of the administrative examination and approval system, the reform of the super ministry system and the construction of the "multi regulation and unification" system. Two, we should continue to deepen the fiscal and taxation reform, support the modernization of the government governance system and capabilities, and three, advance the country in an orderly way.

To promote the pposition of the proceeds and stock of state-owned assets; four, to improve the relevant systems of income distribution and redistribution, and to create "olive type" modern social structure; five, to meet the needs of public services, optimize the structure and mobilize the potential as the general direction, actively straighten out the basic resources, the parity relations and price formation mechanism of energy products, and actively implement selective "effective investment" and PPP mechanism innovation.

Morgan Stanley Huaxin Securities chief economist Zhang Jun believes that in view of the central logic behind the steady growth is to protect employment, it is estimated that the government will closely follow the direction of the employment situation, and choose to adjust the policy of steady growth.

In the short term, in order to avoid economic growth stall and unemployment, the demand side management of "three carriages" should not be relaxed.

At the policy level, we still need to maintain the "double breadth" of money and finance to ensure the continuity and stability of policies to stimulate investment in fixed assets with capital construction as the core, and to stimulate and cultivate new consumption hot spots with the help of tax cuts.