Profit And Growth Increased Year By Year, Chemical Fiber Industry Operation Data Released In The First Three Quarters Of 2018

In the first three quarters of 2018, international oil prices went up and down.

The price of the synthetic fiber market has shifted upward.

The differentiation and operation of the sub sectors continued for the first half of the year. The polyester and nylon industries performed well, and the viscose fiber, acrylic and spandex industry was running more difficult.

1. Basic operation of the industry

(1) supply and demand

According to the National Bureau of statistics, 1~9 chemical fiber production 37 million 414 thousand and 500 tons, an increase of 8.42% over the same period.

Among them, the production of polyester fiber was 29 million 102 thousand tons, an increase of 8.95% over the same period, the output of nylon 2 million 541 thousand and 300 tons, an increase of 5.93% over the same period, and the production of viscose staple fiber 2 million 815 thousand and 800 tons, an increase of 4.97% over the same period last year.

Polyester and nylon industries are booming.

The highest operating rate is more than 90%. In the off-season, the operating rate is still above 80%. The average operating rate is relatively high in the past two years.

The fluctuation rate of operating rate of viscose industry and acrylic fiber industry declined, of which the average operation rate of acrylic fiber industry was less than 70%, and the starting rate of two industries was at a relatively low level in the past two years.

Table 12018 1~9 monthly output of chemical fiber

From the demand side, the downstream demand increased year by year.

The output of downstream main products increased to varying degrees, and the start-up rate of downstream industries increased significantly compared with the same period last year. The total turnover of light textile city was 7, and the year-on-year increase in August was significantly higher than that in the same period last year.

However, the demand for overdraft in the off-season is partly due to the demand for some 9 and October peak season, which may cause some factories to raise their stocks in peak season.

(two) market

Driven by the rise in commodity prices, the core value of synthetic fiber products under cost push is higher than that of the same period last year, of which polyester filament grows larger.

However, in September, the price of PTA fell at a high level and demand in the peak season was not as good as expected, so the price of polyester products fell accordingly.

The market differentiation of each sub industry is obvious, and the situation of ice and fire is continuing for the first half of the year, but the cost pushing effect has gradually weakened, and the pressure of production capacity still exists.

(three) quality and efficiency

In the 1~3 quarter, the main business revenue and total profit of the chemical fiber industry increased year by year, and the total profit in May turned from negative growth to positive growth.

According to the statistics of National Bureau of statistics, 1~9 months

The main business revenue was 590 billion 900 million yuan, an increase of 14.35% over the same period last year, with a total profit of 28 billion 505 million yuan, an increase of 22.34% compared with the same period last year. The industry's deficit was 20.47%, an increase of 6.03 percentage points compared with the same period last year, and the deficit of the deficit company increased by 39.42% over the same period last year.

The industry's loss, loss and profit margin also showed that the profitability of enterprises continued to polarize.

Table 22018 1~9 month chemical fiber industry economic benefits

The operation quality of chemical fiber industry is generally good.

The profit margin of 1~9 chemical fiber industry was 4.82%, 0.31 percentage points higher than that of the same period last year, the turnover rate of total assets was accelerated, the proportion of three fees decreased, but the turnover rate of finished products decreased.

Industry profits increase from

It is mainly attributed to the rise of product prices and the follow-up of downstream demand, but its essence is that the supply side structural reform has achieved certain results, and the relationship between supply and demand has been improved. In addition, the development of new products is also accelerating, and the brand, quality and variety have been promoted.

(1) international oil prices

Political risks and supply fluctuations have led to a surge in oil prices and a record high.

Oil prices hit a high level in the three quarter, and fell at a high level in October.

(two) capacity

Driven by good returns, industry investment enthusiasm is relatively high. In 1~9 months, the growth rate of fixed assets investment in chemical fiber industry continued last year's rebound trend, an increase of 31.9% over the same period last year, and the growth rate increased by 13.9 percentage points over the same period last year.

According to incomplete statistics, the first three quarters of the polyester production capacity increased by more than 400 million tons (including some long stop devices to restart), of which 1 million 100 thousand tons of bottle chips were mainly concentrated in the first half of the year, and the new production capacity in the three quarter was reduced. Currently, the market has basically entered the adjustment stage, and the early release capacity has a great impact on the industry.

(three) money

The RMB exchange rate has reached a new high in recent two years and is expected to remain high and volatile after the market.

Although depreciation of RMB is conducive to exports, the proportion of direct exports of chemical fiber is still low, and the chemical fiber industry is a relatively high degree of dependence on raw materials. PX, MEG and wood pulp all maintain more than 50% of import dependence. Therefore, depreciation of the RMB will increase the cost of imported chemical fiber raw materials.

(four) Sino US trade friction

Sino US trade frictions gradually escalated, almost all of the chemical fiber industry chain was involved.

In the short term, the direct impact on the import and export of China's chemical fiber is not large, and has a great impact on some industries. Especially the impact on China's textile industry will indirectly affect the market confidence of the chemical fiber industry.

In the long run, the import pfer of the United States may accelerate the pace of development of the competitive countries and affect the international competitiveness of China's chemical fiber industry.

But from another point of view, challenge is also an opportunity. This will force the industry to do a good job of quality development and focus on "doing well in internal strength".

Three, fourth quarter industry trend forecast

The macroeconomic environment is generally stable, and domestic demand growth will become a driving force.

The absolute main force of development.

However, the downside risks should not be overlooked and the uncertainty of the international trade environment is increasing, increasing the worries of international buyers and domestic manufacturers.

Demand for 9~10 has been overdrawn in the peak season, and the impact of capacity is still on the rise. Demand for the fourth quarter will drop.

On the export side, trade protectionism is intensifying and trade frictions between China and the United States are escalating.

Crude oil has gone through a long period of increase. High oil prices attract oil producing countries to increase production. Fourth quarter, the crude oil market is more negative. Oil prices have been callback for more than a month, and signs of stopping in the short term are still not obvious.

But if the political risk increases, oil prices are likely to be more volatile.

The impact of the new capacity of the industry will continue, coupled with weaker demand expectations and weaker oil prices, and prices of chemical fiber products may continue to fall.

It is estimated that the quality and efficiency of chemical fiber industry will decline in the four quarter, and the whole year is running well.