When Will The US Recession Report?

The latest survey shows that most economists predict that the US economy will enter recession in the next 2020 years or 2021 years. After adjusting the monetary policy by the Fed, economists postponed the prediction of economic recession.

Agence France-Presse reported that the National Association of Enterprise Economics (Natio) Nal Association for Business Economics (NABE) showed that only 2% of the 226 economists interviewed predicted that the US economy would enter a recession this year, down from 10% of the survey conducted in February.

The Federation has released strong signals suggesting that the 2018 year interest rate increase will be changed under the shadow of the trade prospect between the US and China.

NABE president, and also chief economist of Co, KPMG. Nstance Hunter said: "economists interviewed believe that monetary policy changes will drive sustained economic expansion".

However, in a summary of the report, Hunter said that economists were divided on 2020 or 2021. 38% of respondents predicted a recession next year, while 34% predicted that the economy would be in recession the following year.

According to the survey, the 46% forecast will cut interest rates again at least once this year; about 1/3 of the respondents predict that interest rates will remain at the current level.

The Associated Press reported that financial markets were weighed down by the possibility of the US economic recession last week, adding doubts about the current trade tensions.

In the NABE survey, economists suspected that the trade war launched by trump could be concluded by agreement. However, 64% of the respondents said they could reach a "surface agreement". Nearly 1/4 respondents believed that the US and China would not reach an agreement.

NABE, which was conducted in July 14th and August 1st, coincided with the US President Trump's request for a reduction in interest rates. The benchmark interest rate will be lowered in July 31st. Trump announced in August 2nd that it would impose a 10% punitive duty on the US $300 billion of US dollars that had not been imposed on the mainland. However, the new tariff measures were implemented in two stages, the first phase came into effect in September 1st and the second phase came into effect in December 15th.

In the face of Trump's repeated attacks on the Federation, NABE survey shows that economists are concerned about the subsequent impact. 55% of respondents believe that although trump shooting can not control the decision of the Federation, it will destroy the public's trust in the Federation.

More than 1/4 respondents believe that Trump's bombardment will "cause the alliance's policy to turn to moderate and dangerous independence."