Will Japan And Japan Suffer From The Spread Of The Semiconductor Industry Or Will The Volatile Technology Stocks Encounter The "Ceiling" Instead Of China?

In February 24th, the stock market continued to oscillate, the Shanghai Composite Index dropped 0.28%, while the gem index rose by 1.68% under the guidance of technology stocks. Wind Semiconductor Index and electronic component index rose by 4.03% and 4.32% respectively.

The technology stocks represented by semiconductors and electronic components have risen sharply, which is closely related to the recent global spread of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, especially the critical moment in the epidemic situation in Japan and South Korea.

Up to four p.m. local time on February 24th, South Korea has totaled 833 cases. Just the day before, South Korea has raised the warning level of the new crown to the highest level. SK, Hynix and Samsung Electronics of the global electronics factory have experienced intensive contacts and confirmed cases, and have different effects on the production of enterprises.

"At present, Samsung has confirmed the epidemic is the mobile phone assembly plant, SK Hynix close contacts staff nucleic acid detection is negative, in a short period of time, little impact, but if the epidemic continues to spread, the electronic companies in Japan and South Korea will probably reduce the utilization of capacity, resulting in the shortage of the supply chain of the entire electronic industry chain, which requires continuous attention." In February 24th, Fang Jing, chief analyst of XinDa's securities and electronics industry, pointed out.

Industrial chain or impact

With the spread of the new crown pneumonia epidemic in Asia, the market is worried about the global semiconductor industry chain, especially after the emergence of dense contacts and confirmed cases of SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics in the global electronics factory.

According to XinDa's electronic industry chain research, at present, the memory capacity of Hynix Lichuan factory has 30 thousand pieces of M10 plant area and 160 thousand DRAM M14, which has more than half of the total capacity of Hynix. In addition, CIS production capacity, 12 inches of production capacity of 20 thousand tablets / month, is also located in Lichuan M10 plant.

At the same time, the epidemic situation in Japan is also not optimistic. As of 21 in February 23rd, the total number of confirmed cases in Japan has reached 838. According to CITIC data, according to the capacity distribution of the global wafer fab, Japan accounted for 17% of the world's capacity in 2018, and specifically to the field of storage chips. As of 2019Q3, Japanese manufacturers accounted for 19% of the world's market share.

In terms of DRAM, Samsung accounted for 46% of the global market in 2019 and second of Hynix accounted for 28.6%, with nearly 75% of the market. In terms of flash memory, the market share of Samsung, Toshiba and Hynix plus was 63% in 2019. In terms of semiconductor electronic chemicals, Japan accounted for more than 60% of the market share. On the CIS chip, the top two suppliers in the world were SONY and Samsung, and of course, Hynix is also an important CIS supplier. In addition, Japan and South Korea are the world's most important suppliers of MLCC, capacitors and inductors. Fang Jing pointed out to the twenty-first Century economic report reporter.

In Fang Jing's view, the above main enterprises are distributed in Japan and South Korea, carrying a large number of electronic core components and materials, and once they are affected, the supply of the entire electronics industry will be very short, and then the price will rise.

"For domestic industry chain, price rise is good, but not all. More importantly, domestic terminal manufacturers will accelerate the import of domestic supply chain from the perspective of supply chain safety and avoid high dependence on Japan and Korea.

"The domestic terminal manufacturers represented by Hua Mei OV have a higher demand for domestic replacement of semiconductor components. Autonomous control will be the mainstay for more than five years in the future, and the epidemic will further promote this trend. However, if the epidemic persists for a long time, it will still have a negative impact. The importance of Japan and Korea in the upstream of the electronic industry chain can not be ignored. If there is a large-scale shutdown, there will be a larger supply gap, which will affect the development of the global electronic industry, and the epidemic will also affect the purchasing power of the people. Fang Jing added.

Good domestic alternative?

Affected by the epidemic in Japan and South Korea, the listed companies that are expected to be replaced by others are being touted by capital.

Six well-known trading chip design companies, mega innovation, have been booming for 42.05% consecutive days since February. The main products of the company are flash memory chips, microcontrollers and sensors. In the two quarter of 2019, the company successfully surpassed in the Nor flash market, and ranked fourth in world sales, with a market share of 13.9%.

Another storage chip company, Changjiang storage, also said publicly that the operation was normal during the epidemic period, and the production was carried out in two shifts, and production and operation were carried out in an orderly and orderly manner.

In addition to chips, Japan and South Korea are also important production bases for panels. Affected by the epidemic in Japan and South Korea, market funds have begun to welcome domestic panel companies.

Reporters learned that during the epidemic, the domestic production lines of the listed companies are running normally.

According to TCL Securities Department sources, logistics in Wuhan has basically been opened up. "Now it is mainly transported by air to the airport in Wuhan, and then the raw material is pulled to the factory. Our logistics vehicles have been put on record in Wuhan.

BOE also publicly stated that the local government has given great support in transportation and other aspects, and the operation of the production lines has been limited by the epidemic. In terms of raw material reserves, the company and the upstream suppliers have certain reserves to meet the needs of current production. In addition, the company has established a diversified supplier system over the years, and the impact of local epidemic on supply chain security is limited.

However, in spite of speculation in market capital, it is not easy to achieve this goal.

"As we often said before," lack of core and small screen ", the panel plate has now basically completed the domestic substitution, only OLED slightly difference, and semiconductor still has a long way to go. There are many high-quality semiconductor listed companies in China, and they have strong competitiveness in their respective fields. However, it is impossible to achieve domestic substitution in a single step. Take memory as an example, the threshold of DRAM is very high, and China has just started. Hefei Changxin's DRAM products have only recently begun to market. If the supply chain of Japan and Korea is shutting down on a large scale and the epidemic is serious enough to switch the supply chain, on the one hand, domestic capacity will not keep up, and on the other hand, the cost will also rise sharply. Fang Jing said.

And the rapid rise of technology stocks under hot speculation is in the eyes of many market participants, or has been ambushed "dangerous signals".

"Truly successful technology stocks are rare. Most technology stocks may burst, or even return to their original form. Now technology stocks are in the stage of inflation, but when the tide is down, the trend of stocks will be seriously divided. Yang Delong, chief economist of Qianhai open source fund, pointed out. (Editor: Wu Yan Ling)