Short Term Shock Adjustment For PTA Fundamentals
Disk situation: PTA2005 contract after opening low, add warehouse upward. The closing price of the day was 4482, which was -0.4% compared with the previous trading day, with a turnover of 391009 hands, 789889 positions, +7583 and base -147.
News: 1, a 1 million 200 thousand ton PTA plant in Ningbo is now warming up, and the device has been shut down yesterday. A 2 million 200 thousand ton PTA plant in Jiangyin has not been started yet, and the device was stopped in February 14th.
Upstream raw materials: in February 24, 2020, the Asian PX market closed at 739.33 US dollars / ton CFR China and 721.33 US dollars / ton FOB Korea, down 11 US dollars / ton compared with the previous working day. Yesterday, the MX price was 644 US dollars / ton CFR, Taiwan dropped 4 US dollars / ton; naphtha price was 475.75 US dollars / ton CFR Japan, compared with the previous working day, it dropped 20.75 US dollars / ton.
Spot price: PTA East China spot quotation 4335 yuan / ton, +0.
Warehouse Receipt Inventory: the PTA registered warehouse receipt of Zhengshang office is 76289, compared with the previous trading day 11764, the effective forecast is +20389 Zhang.
Main position: the first twenty positions on the Zhengzhou mercantile exchange show that the PTA2005 contract pays 419271 hands, +10303, sell 507793, +10080.
Conclusion: the impact of the new coronal outbreaks on overseas expansion, the market panic and the weakening of crude oil overnight were affected by the Saudi energy minister's speech and Tianjin vaccine news. The basic PTA is affected by supply and demand in the short run. Some devices take the initiative to reduce load operation. At present, the overall operating rate has dropped slightly, and the inventory remains at a high level, which is difficult to digest. Downstream polyester operating rate rose slightly to 61.5%, the terminal manufacturing industry will appreciate by 24%. In the late part, with the further resumption of business, demand or further increase, superimposed PTA processing fee is lower, or the price will be reduced, but the pressure of supply and demand will increase.
Technically, the PTA2005 contract fell during the day, focusing on the pressure near 4500, underneath the test 4400 near the support, short-term KDJ index turned head down, price or shock adjustment.
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