Supply And Demand Forecast Of Polyester Filament In August

Affected by the epidemic situation and the rapid expansion of raw material end capacity, the polymerization cost showed a weak trend in the year seven Since the end of the month, polyester dual raw materials showed an upward trend, but with today's PTA Weak basis and sporadic offers from traders and factories are expected eight Middle and late ten days PTA From the demand side, although the start-up rate of weaving enterprises remains at a low level, since last week, with the arrival of autumn and winter orders, domestic and foreign trade orders of downstream looms, especially terminal shoes and clothing, have improved. It is expected that in the short term, the weaving machine will mainly consume its own grey cloth and raw material inventory, and the upward transmission still needs a certain time and two-way attack Next, expect eight In the middle and late ten days of the year, the polyester filament shows a stable and oscillatory situation.

Figure 1   Price trend chart of polyester raw material end

Source: Longzhong information

Look at the raw materials and enter seven Since the end of the month, PTA Part of the device maintenance support, circulation of goods less, driving the spot market trading atmosphere, at present eight Month in PTA Under the condition of centralized maintenance of the plant and stable demand of polyester end, the raw material end takes advantage of the potential to speculate in the short term, and there is some resistance to the upward price. In terms of ethylene glycol, eight In January, the ethylene glycol unit was shut down for maintenance frequently, and the wharf inventory was affected by the port closure and unloading, and the total inventory was phased to the warehouse, superimposed on overseas South Asia, Dow unit maintenance, ethylene glycol eight It was warm in the first ten days of the month, eight In the middle and late ten days, the overall upward pressure of polyester raw material end is larger.

Table 1   Price comparison table of mainstream polyester filament models

Unit: Yuan / ton

Source: Longzhong information

By eight month eleven Japan, polyester filament POY150/48 Market mainstream transaction in five thousand three hundred and seventy-five element / Tons, down from the same period last year 34.87% , up from last month 7.91% ， FDY150D/96F Market mainstream transaction in five thousand eight hundred and seventy-five element / Tons, down from the same period last year 30.72% , up from last month 9.79% ， DTY150D/48F Trading in the mainstream market six thousand and six hundred element / Tons, down from the same period last year 27.53% , up from last month 2.27% 。 Generally speaking, the price of polyester filament in recent years has shown an overall upward trend compared with that of last month, and the profit has been slightly restored, but the mainstream still maintains a loss. At present, some hot-selling specifications in some markets still have some cash flow, and some models were once in short supply.

Figure 2   Trend chart of polyester filament stock

Source: Longzhong information

From the inventory point of view, as of this Monday POY Mainstream inventory in 21-30 One and a half months of high-end inventory, one and a half days of low-end inventory, FDY Mainstream inventory in 19-25 Days, the high-end inventory is around one month, and the low-end inventory is around a week; DTY Low end of mainstream inventory twenty The rest of the day, high-end inventory is around one and a half months or even higher. FDY Due to the relatively large number of market traders and the ability to transfer part of the enterprise's inventory, the factory inventory is relatively low DTY It belongs to back textile, downstream to weaving factory, so the market purchasing enthusiasm is difficult to be driven by market hype, and the inventory is high. Therefore, the author believes that concern about polyester market, late DTY It can be used as a weathervane for the substantial improvement of the market.

Operation rate of chemical fiber weaving industry

Source: Longzhong information

In the near future, the comprehensive starting rate of downstream looms is from seven Since the end of the month, there has been a slight increase in some parts. Recently, Haining warp knitting and terminal shoe and garment factories have reported that there are batch orders receiving orders. Some terminal and weaving factories said that the market situation was significantly improved compared with last month, mainly in the countries along the "belt and road", involving new orders, the quantitative recovery of East Asia, West Asia, Africa and America!   European and American orders also recovered slightly,   However, most of the weaving factories said that although compared with seven The month is better, but the market is still in general. Overall, the demand has been improved.

On the whole, eight In the last ten days of the middle of the year, the supply side began to decline after the maintenance was good. When the new orders were issued in autumn and winter, the internal and external orders of the demand side were slightly improved DTY In addition to the high level, other mainstream model inventory has not yet reached four It is expected that polyester filament will maintain stable operation in the short term, and the floating space of mainstream transaction is in the upper and lower levels two hundred element / Within tons.