How To Use Futures Tools To Escort Cotton Market Fluctuation Enterprises

 

Yesterday, cotton main contract 2301 rose 3.18% to close at 14765 yuan / ton, cotton yarn main contract rose 3.38% to 22505 yuan / ton.

Recently, cotton disk prices have risen, mainly due to the impact of the macro environment. The U.S. non farm payrolls report for July, released on Friday, more than doubled than expected, thus falsifying the argument that the US Federal Reserve's aggressive interest rate hike would lead to a "recession.". In addition, the US consumer price index (CPI) released on Wednesday showed a year-on-year increase of 8.5%, which is lower than the 8.7% expected to be optimistic and far lower than the 9.1% increase in June. The superposition of two factors makes the "stagflation theory" of the United States close to bankruptcy, and also makes a number of investors think that the rate increase rate of the Federal Reserve's FOMC in September will fall to 50 basis points. As a result, the monetary tightening pressure encountered by various markets has been greatly alleviated, and the depressive mood has been released intensively.

Zheng cotton futures price rose, more affected by the policy and emotional aspects. At present, ABC has extended the extension period of 1-5 years to some enterprises, and the interest rate is based on the benchmark interest rate. The company's repayment cycle has been extended and the pessimism of the market has been alleviated to some extent.

In terms of external environment, in addition to the impact of the overall rebound of commodity market caused by macro factors, cotton in ice period continued to rise under the background of rising weather, which also led to the rise of domestic cotton prices to a certain extent. However, at present, the weak pattern of Zheng cotton fundamentals is difficult to change, and there may be some pressure in the medium and long term.

For the recent ice period, cotton prices have broken through the 100 cents / pound mark again, mainly due to the weather premium in the main cotton producing areas and the improvement of the external macro environment. As of August 2, the area of extreme and abnormal drought areas in the United States accounted for 19.0%, of which the area of extremely and abnormally arid areas in Texas accounted for 61.9%, which was on the high side in recent years. The drought situation in the main production area of Texas continued to deteriorate, causing market concerns about the new year's production. In addition, the high CPI data of the United States fell back, indicating that inflation in the United States may have peaked. The market expects that the Fed's interest rate hike will turn to "Dove" faction. With the cooling of interest rate increase expectation, it will form a certain support for the commodity market. At present, the global pattern of cotton supply and demand is generally stable. According to the supply and demand report released in July, although the global cotton production and consumption are expected to be reduced, the final inventory is still in the process of a small increase.

From the perspective of reserve cotton sales, the turnover rates in the past four trading days were 35%, 27%, 17% and 0%, respectively. The willingness of enterprises to sell decreased significantly, which reflected that the mood of enterprises had been improved. From the perspective of raw material inventory, the raw material demand for low cotton yarn increased. At present, some enterprises have certain optimistic expectations for the future textile and clothing demand.

Zheng cotton and ice cotton trend is inconsistent, even differentiation or will become normal. Enterprises should make rational use of futures tools in combination with their own situation to escort their operation, which is also the wisdom of domestic textile enterprises.