Global Economy: El Nino Climate Brings Global Cotton Production Reduction Expectation

After experiencing the "triple" La Nina weather since 2020, the global climate has gradually entered the "El Nino" climate this year.

According to the June ENSO outlook report released by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the probability of El Nino in July September this year is expected to exceed 94%.

It is estimated that the probability of moderate El Ni ñ o events in the next few months is 84%, and the probability of strong events is 56%. The arrival of El Nino this time is very fast and intense. El Nino will cause high temperature and drought in Southeast Asia, Australia, India and Central America, less rain in northern Brazil and more rain in central and southern Brazil, less rain in northern America and more rain in southern America, less rain in northern China and more rain in southern China.

From the El Ni ñ o index over the years and the trend of global cotton production, generally, when the El Ni ñ o index is high, the global cotton production is relatively small or severely reduced.

At present, the El Ni ñ o index has risen significantly, but the global cotton output in the new year has not been adjusted accordingly. With the continued increase of the El Ni ñ o index in the third and fourth quarters, it is expected that the global cotton output will decline significantly, especially the cotton output of Australia and India will decline correspondingly.