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Global Perspective: The International Consumption Market Is Depressed, And Cotton Growth In The Northern Hemisphere Has Entered A Critical Period

2023/8/19 11:16:00 0

The American clothing retail has strong resilience, and the intermediate link is still in the stage of de stocking. According to the data of the U.S. Department of Commerce, the retail sales of clothing stores in the United States in June 2023 were 25.88 billion dollars, an increase of 0.58% over the previous month and 0.75% over the same period last year; The import amount of American clothing and clothing accessories was 7.23 billion US dollars, up 3.70% over the previous month and down 24.21% over the same period last year; The inventory of clothing and clothing faced by American wholesalers was US $37.95 billion, down 1.67% from the previous month and 3.18% from the same period last year. However, some institutions predict that US consumer spending will weaken in the fourth quarter of this year, which may have an impact on the US economy.

The international textile market continues the downward trend. The July survey report of the International Textile Manufacturers Federation showed that although the order volume in July increased slightly, the textile mills, printing and dyeing and finishing departments were all negative news. The Indian textile agency warned that under the slowdown of global clothing market demand, India's spinning and weaving industry has about 30% excess capacity, and many textile mills, especially small and medium-sized enterprises, may face financial pressure. The export of Cambodia's clothing industry continues to decline, and a large number of factories are facing a tide of production halts and layoffs.

Cotton growth in the northern hemisphere is different, and the southern hemisphere's acquisition is at the peak

The excellent rate of American cotton will decline in 2023. By August 13, 2023, 36% of American cotton had achieved good growth, 12 percentage points lower than that of the previous month and 2 percentage points higher than that of the same period last year. It is reported that some cotton regions in the United States will receive rainfall in the near future, which will help alleviate the drought.

India is slightly behind in sowing. The Indian Meteorological Department said that due to the El Nino weather, the rainfall in India in August is expected to be lower than the average, which is 92% of the historical average. According to the statistics of the Ministry of Agriculture of India, as of August 4, the planting area of new cotton was about 178.81 million mu, down 1.4% year on year, still at a high level in recent years. Among them, the planting progress in the northern cotton area is about 5% ahead of schedule, while that in the southern cotton area is slow, about 13.5% behind the same period last year.

The output of new cotton in Australia is down, and the overall quality is good. According to the report of relevant Australian institutions, as of the end of July, the processing of Australian cotton in 2022 has been more than half, and it is estimated that 540000 tons of new cotton has been processed accumulatively, and the output has been reduced to 1.14 million tons from 1.18 million tons previously predicted. It is reported that from the perspective of new cotton quality, the current Australian cotton grade and pile length are generally very ideal,

In 2023, the demand gap for global cotton production reduction and consumption increase will expand again

According to the prediction of the U.S. Department of Agriculture in August, the global cotton output in 2023 will be 24.85 million tons, down 590000 tons from last month, 0.89%, and 910000 tons from last year, 3.53% lower; The global cotton consumption was 25.46 million tons, an increase of 110000 tons over the previous month, with a growth rate of 0.42%, and 1.4 million tons over the previous year, with a growth rate of 5.85%; The gap between production and demand expanded to 610000 tons; The global inventory consumption ratio at the end of the period was 78.33%, 2.83 percentage points lower than that of the previous month and 6.87 percentage points lower than that of the previous year.