Industrial Cluster: Xinjiang New Cotton Warehouse Moved Smoothly, And The Old Cotton Warehouse Receipts Entered The Cancellation Rhythm

According to the statistics of relevant departments, in October 2024, Xinjiang cotton exported to Xinjiang more than 310000 tons, an increase of 202000 tons (159%) month on month and 221000 tons (247%) year on year. In October, 276700 tons of roads left Xinjiang (197000 tons more than the same period of last year, 170000 tons more than the same period of last month), accounting for 91.4% of the total amount of Xinjiang cotton warehouse transfer in that month, and only 8.6% of the total amount of railways left Xinjiang. According to the feedback from some cotton enterprises and ginning mills in Xinjiang, the highway shipment of Xinjiang cotton in the first half of November is still growing compared with that in October. In addition, the railway stock transfer volume shows a slow recovery. It is expected that the export volume of Xinjiang cotton in November is expected to reach about 350000 tons, entering the peak stock transfer season ahead of the same period of the previous two years.

Why did Xinjiang cotton stock transfer in October and November pick up significantly month on month and year on year? The industry analysis is mainly related to the following three factors:

1、 Although the processing volume and public inspection volume of Xinjiang cotton in October/November were "accelerated" (the year-on-year growth rate was higher than 30% by the middle of November), the cotton inventory in the mainland continues to tighten, and the basis difference is still high although it has been reduced. According to the survey/estimation of some institutions and cotton related enterprises, as of the end of October, the commercial inventory of cotton in the mainland region was only about 250000 tons (less than 10% of the total commercial inventory of cotton in China at the end of October), with a year-on-year decrease of about 40%. Therefore, even though the cotton base difference in the mainland is relatively high (the "double 28/double 29/double 30" base difference is 1200-1700 yuan/ton), the cotton in the supervision warehouse/delivery warehouse still flows out rapidly.

2、 In October and November 2024/25, civilian cotton (including cotton wadding) in southern Xinjiang will be transported out of Xinjiang by truck and enter the peak period. From the perspective of time, the delivery date of the "pre-sale" contract of cotton batten is mostly from the middle of October to the middle of November, and the spot purchase period of civilian cotton (cotton batten) from the mainland into Xinjiang is also concentrated before the end of November. The sellers in Sichuan, Chongqing, Guizhou, Zhejiang, Henan and other places need to leave a certain delivery date.

3、 In view of the approaching cancellation period of Zheng Mian's warehouse receipts in 2023/24 and the substantial listing of Xinjiang's new cotton in this year, traders and processing enterprises in Xinjiang can only increase the efforts to transfer the old cotton to the warehouse, and strive to clear the warehouse and realize it as soon as possible. According to Zheng's regulations, "the time of compulsory cancellation of cotton warehouse receipts is adjusted to the 15th trading day in November N+1". As of November 13, there were only 94 warehouse receipts in 2024/25 out of the 2444 warehouse receipts of Zheng, and a large number of old cotton warehouse receipts entered the cancellation rhythm.