Real Economy Observation 2016: The Leftover Of Policy Stimulus

It is not hard to see that the current economic stabilization is the result, and the previous policy stimulus is due to the fact that the credit stimulus made the real estate sales blowout in the early stage and led to industrial investment, and the tax reduction policy set a new high in car sales.

However, the result of the old road to stimulate the economy is the acceleration of risk accumulation, and when the economy stabilizes, it stimulates.

The strength is weakening and the space is decreasing. The economy will also enter the stage of "remaining banquet" with "insufficient recovery power and risk to be digested" from the "recovery feast".

Industrial economy or short-term improvement in October.

From the macro data, the PMI of the national manufacturing industry is as high as 51.2.

Demand: downstream property down, passenger cars are still booming, household appliances, textile and clothing slightly down, stylistic entertainment is still in the doldrums.

The middle reaches of the steel and cement marginal improvement, chemical industry weakened.

Upstream coal is improved, colored is still weak, and pportation is improving weakly.

Price: in September, the price of the 70 cities increased year by year and the annulus rate rose. Last week, the price of domestic means of production rose all the way.

Inventory: downstream property, passenger cars pick up, textile and clothing low.

The middle reaches of iron and steel inventory compensation, cement, chemical to inventory.

Upstream coal replenishment, color to inventory.

Real estate: real estate sales growth slowed sharply in October, and land pactions fell slightly last week.

In October, the growth rate of real estate sales in major cities declined by ten days. In late 26 cities, the growth rate dropped sharply to -23% in the same period. The 40 cities grew by -21% over the same period last year, while the monthly growth rate also dropped sharply compared with September.

Real estate

Weak impact, last week, the ten cities housing sales ratio continued to rise.

Last week, the land pactions were not warm, the superposition base was high, and the growth was still negative.

Passenger car: October vehicle dealer inventory warning index hit a 4 month high.

Driven by the half exit policy of small displacement vehicle purchase tax, the wholesale sales volume of passenger cars in the third week of October has dropped slightly to 15% compared to the same period last year, but the growth rate of the first three weeks is still up to 27%, and the retail sales volume has also maintained a high growth rate, which is only slightly smaller than that of September.

In October, the auto dealer inventory early warning index returned online to 51.5%, a record high of 4 months. The terminal demand continued to flourish, making dealers confident and actively replenishing inventory.

Appliances: Sales of refrigerators rose in September, washing machines dropped, and retail sales weakened in October.

In September, the industry online refrigerator factory production and sales growth rate rose to 6.3% and 3.6% respectively. Although the export growth rate has declined, the new refrigerator standard implemented in October has made the domestic sales growth rebounded sharply, and has been positive, driving the overall demand.

Demand improvement led to a seasonal increase in refrigerator sales to 0.44 in September.

In September, sales volume of washing machine manufacturers dropped to 4.3%, of which domestic sales growth rebounded slightly, but export growth slowed sharply, dragging down overall demand.

The decline in demand reduced the washing machine inventory to 0.53 in September.

High frequency data showed that the retail trend of white line was weak in the 10 month, and the retail sales volume of the three major white lines in the third weeks declined sharply.

Low inventory consolidation in September, Keqiao textile boom index picked up in October.

In September, the growth rate of textile and apparel finished goods inventory was mixed: the textile industry continued to rise, the clothing and apparel industry dropped, but the overall position was low, reflecting the low inventory consolidation of the industry.

In October, Keqiao textile boom index picked up, combined with the October Keqiao textile price index total category rise, raw material category decline, indicating that the supply and demand pattern improved in October, demand or short-term rebound.

Last week, Keqiao textile price index dropped slightly, raw materials slightly recovered, and the 328 cotton price index basically leveled off.

Stylistic Entertainment: last week, movie box office and viewing passengers continued to narrow down compared with the same period last year.

Last week, the national box office revenue of 458 million yuan, a year-on-year decline narrowed to -10.2%, -15.1%.

Last week, 14 million 910 thousand people visited the country, with a decrease of -3.6% compared with the same period last year, -13.6%.

Last week, the box office of the movie was still flat and lacking in explosions, and mechanic 2 gained two hundred million votes.