China'S Economic Recovery Is Still Lacking External Support.

In the first three quarters of the US, the economic growth rate reached 2.9%, which was a contrast with China's PMI data. However, the main reason behind it was mainly contributed by net exports by 0.8%.

The increase in exports is due to factors such as weakening US dollar and soaring soybean prices due to floods in South America.

In addition, the increase in inventory investment contributed 0.6% to economic growth. As exports and replenishment stocks all belong to short-term factors and are not sustainable, it is estimated that the growth rate of the US economy will not exceed 2% throughout the whole year. Two.

The recovery of the US economy since the second half of 2009 has been mainly based on quantitative easing monetary policy, but the employment situation is not ideal. Loose monetary policy has led to the widening gap between the rich and the poor.

In this weak recovery and unsustainable background, interest rates are estimated at most two times.

Looking at Europe and Japan, there is no sign of improvement.

This year, the rise in the price of many commodities is only a rebound because the basic pattern of oversupply is difficult to change.

Around the world, these developed countries

Almost none of them is better.

I think a long-term and fundamental reason is that the aging of the population leads to the weakening of demand.

The aging of the population itself has no strong demand for the two largest consumer goods, such as housing and automobiles. The urbanization process has already been completed and the population mobility is close to zero.

For example, the average age of the Japanese is 46 years, 10 years higher than the average age of the Chinese, and the average age of most European countries is close to 40 years old or over 40.

Among the most populous countries, only India is the youngest and 10 years younger than China, so it has the highest potential for growth.

Therefore, China is in a period of global economic recession. It is hard to expect external support from the economic rebound.

On the one hand, we need steady growth. On the other hand, we need to promote reform and deleveraging. In the short run, there seems to be some contradictions.

From the perspective of economic history, the process of economic slowdown is a process of leverage, because the government is always willing to adopt counter cyclical policies to stimulate economic recovery.

Truly effective deleveraging, like the subprime crisis in the US in the 2008, forced leverage through crisis.

Therefore, there are few cases of successful deleveraging without crisis.

In the long run, can we solve structural problems through reform? I think this is just a good assumption.

Everyone is accustomed to looking forward to the future, but few people have to reflect on the structural adjustment and adjustment for so many years. Structural problems are getting more and more serious.

In the past few years, PPP mode has been adopted.

The purpose of the model is to leverage. If private capital is tied up with state-owned capital, it can share the cost of investment in the country.

However, under the background of economic downturn, the willingness to invest in private capital is generally insufficient, and the demand for outflows is increasing. This makes many tools for determining the effectiveness of reform difficult to work.

If the economy can go back to high growth, it can achieve the goal of deleveraging, for example, around 2000, the bad debts of China's four major industries will be stripped, so that the four major Asset Management Co will digest slowly.

The success of this model is because the gains from high growth can be offset by bad assets.

Today, the economy is in the process of downlink. The way of deleveraging is solved only by the way of risk outburst, which is of great destructive effect to the economy.

Now that we need to prevent risks and grow steadily, under the background of economic downturn and labor productivity decline, the space of policy has been narrowed down, and there is little room for choice.

This requires us to be more realistic and not to have too many illusions as we used to be.

You have not achieved so many goals in the past days, but now it is even more difficult.

To sum up, I think China's five years of this year's

It will continue to rise rapidly because high growth is no longer possible and economic slowdown will not help deleveraging.

But not leveraged and stable leverage is also good, that is, by reducing input, the lever of social leverage can be stabilized. The cost is, of course, a further decline in economic growth, but the input to output ratio of the whole society can rise, which should be more advantageous than economic disadvantage in terms of economic stability and structural improvement.