Green Space Zhang Yuliang: Real Estate Enters A New Cycle And Faces Four Major Trends

Real estate prices will become more and more stable and will enter a new cycle of diversification and large capacity.

Zhang Yuliang, who claims to have been a veteran of the industry for 28 years, believes that the real estate industry has entered the second half as a whole. On August 8, Zhang Yuliang, chairman and President of Greenland Holdings (600606. SH), attended the 20th annual meeting of Boao 21st century real estate forum. He entered a new development cycle from the real estate industry, and analyzed the main melody of the current transformation and upgrading of real estate enterprises.

"Stability" in real estate

Compared with many uncertainties in the macro-economy, the development of the real estate industry is actually more certain, and the main tone of development in the future is "stability".

Zhang Yuliang pointed out that in view of the coexistence of "real estate financialization" and "financial real estate" in the past years, the central government proposed the positioning of "house is for living, not for speculation", and made clear that the overall direction of "not using real estate as a means of short-term economic stimulation" has been very clear, that is, to "stabilize house prices, stabilize land prices, stabilize expectations", so as to make the real estate industry It has become a "ballast" for long-term stable and healthy economic development, rather than a "minefield". The key now is to accurately grasp the flexibility of implementing policies in accordance with the city, the time, and the combination of long-term mechanism and short-term measures.

The main performance is that the policy orientation is relatively certain, and the super large market volume is also relatively certain. China's urbanization has gone through a magnificent process. At present, China's urbanization rate is about 60%, compared with the level of more than 75% in developed countries, there is a big gap. Therefore, the total amount of the real estate market continues to maintain a certain scale, and there is still a foundation. In the first half of this year, affected by the epidemic situation, China's commercial housing sales decreased by 5.4% year on year, but still reached 6.69 trillion yuan.

Zhang Yuliang predicted that the total domestic market volume this year will be about 15 trillion yuan. This is still the only "supermarket" in the world. The market size of the global automobile industry is only 2 trillion US dollars, about 14 trillion yuan. Of course, the total market volume of about 15 trillion yuan may become the peak of the industry, and it may decline steadily in the future.

Normalization of house price fluctuation

On the issue of whether house prices will fall, Zhang Yuliang believes that under the condition of market economy, the normal fluctuation of prices is normal. Real estate has its particularity. The house price will fluctuate, but it will not fall sharply, but will stabilize. The core reason lies in: on the one hand, the market demand still exists, some families may have several houses, but some families are still suffering from owning one. On the other hand, the real estate industry is associated with a large number of real economy industries, a huge amount of bank assets and liabilities, and also a huge amount of household property. The consequences of the rapid decline of house prices are unimaginable, and the social and economic development will not tolerate this situation.

Another reason for the fluctuation of house prices is that not all the markets in the region will be stable or growing. Only those areas with sustained economic development, population inflow and industrial agglomeration will have the basis for stability and growth. These areas are often concentrated in urban agglomerations, metropolitan areas and their surrounding spillover areas. In particular, the population and industries of regional central cities with a certain degree of primacy will continue to gather. In fact, the "competition for talents" and "investment promotion war" implemented by some big cities in the past few years are actually a vivid portrayal of this phenomenon.

Zhang Yuliang pointed out that the future structure of competition is determined by comparison. The general trend is that the industry concentration is increasing day by day, which is also the road that many industries in China have gone through. From "big fish eat small fish" to "big fish eat big fish", this is actually the inevitable process of the market.

How can real estate enterprises start again through the cycle? Zhang Yuliang believes that to speed up the transformation and upgrading, serve the society, serve the people's livelihood, and build core competitiveness, the general direction is to follow the trend and adapt to the overall economic and social transformation and upgrading.

In this regard, Zhang Yuliang pointed out that the basic path includes: grasp the structural change of regional integration and the development of urban agglomeration, and adjust the investment layout along the spillover areas of urban agglomeration and the surrounding areas of high-speed rail and other transportation lines. More attention should be paid to improving the supply quality and creating high-quality products; more attention should be paid to speeding up the turnover speed and improving the efficiency of project development; more attention should be paid to cost control to improve business efficiency; more attention should be paid to asset operation, from "single development" to "both development and operation". "Real estate +" business model innovation exploration and attempt. We should comply with the trend of scientific and technological revolution and innovation, and actively increase the content of science and technology. For example, grafting innovative technologies such as artificial intelligence, big data and cloud computing to improve the level of science and technology.

Not long ago, Greenland, together with CRRC transportation, signed a cooperation agreement with Suzhou Wujiang on the "Yangtze River Delta green intelligent manufacturing collaborative innovation demonstration area project", which confirmed Zhang Yuliang's practice of how to go through the cycle before starting.